As I'm sure you've noticed, spring is here and the heating season is coming to and end. At first it looked like putin had screwed himself and the poor conscripts in his army by delaying the invasion until after China's Olympics, then it became clear that his and their utter incompetence screwed his plans regardless of the timing.

Now that he has proved Russia to be not only an unreliable partner but also a dangerous one, Germany and the rest of Europe is going to get right on that project of transitioning from fossil and shutting the valve on Russian energy.

As I point out in my Medium article, Stress Testing Engagement as Foreign Policy, both Europe and the larger western world have been conducting a grand experiment of engagement with the former communist dictatorships on the hypothesis that economic interdependence would foster democracy, human rights and market economies. In addition, interdependence was thought likely to discourage wars of aggression that would interrupt trade and cost more than they gained. We are testing that hypothesis right now with Russia and China is watching closely. Should putin succeed in Ukraine then Xi will likely set the schedule for a similarly brutal and bloody attack on Taiwan. If the penalty for Russian criminality in Ukraine be too painful, too high, then Xi will likely reconsider.

In any case it seems obvious that economic engagement is critically dangerous, enabling criminal states like China and Russia to spread the plague of autocracy rather than leading them to governmental legitimacy, and WE should adjust our economic relationships accordingly.