At the outset of the criminal invasion, winning was off the table for Ukraine which nearly all expected to collapse like a punctured hot air balloon. Now, actually pushing Russian forces entirely out of Ukraine seems far fetched. Long term, however, no accommodation with putin that recognizes a single square kilometer of "annexed" territory can be allowed, nor can any return to "business as usual" with Russia be contemplated.

There is a lager context at work here, the choice of Russia and China to go all in on dictatorship and aggressive territorial ambitions while attempting at the same time to be a significant player in global markets. This is an opportunity to aggressively wean Europe off of Russian fossils and re-commit to renewables and nuclear, a crucial step in fighting global warming. The same is true for Chinese manufacturing. We need to shorten and eliminate overseas supply chains, particularly for strategically important products.

It was worth a gamble to see if economic engagement could lure the great dictatorships into liberal democracy, not working out well right now but still a possibility in the long run. In the short term the west need to insulate from the obvious Russian and Chinese intent to weaponize trade and demonstrate to the people of those nations what can be gained or lost by the autocratic ambitions of their leaders.